Ways to play the Rams and win

If the Saints reach the Super Bowl for the second time with Drew Brees, the 40-year-old quarterback will need a lot of assistance from his running backs and his team’s run defense.

A deep ball from Brees lifted the Saints over the Rams in a 45-35 shootout on Nov. 4. Brees’ 72-yard pass to Michael Thomas finished off the Rams, who rolled into New Orleans with an 8-0 record. Both offenses have slowed and shifted more toward the ground in the past two months. Brees is not hitting on many deep throws anymore. The Saints, who lacked explosive plays and gained a modest 5.9 yards per play in a 20-14 comeback victory over the Eagles a week ago, did not score more than 31 points in any of their past seven games.

The Rams are not relying as much on quarterback Jared Goff. The focus for Sean McVay’s offense will be the running back tandem of Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson. The Rams actually had a yards-per-play edge (8.2 to 7.0) against the Saints in the first meeting.

New Orleans’ home-field advantage is significant, but McVay’s road record is 13-3 the past two seasons. The point-spread swing clinches this decision. The Rams were 2-point favorites in the Superdome in November, so the flip of 5 to 5½ points puts the value with the underdog.

The plays: Rams +3, with smaller wagers at +150 on the money line and under the total of 57.