Surprise 49ers hero can be more than just one-time fantasy stud
Some one-hit wonders aren’t really one-hit wonders, we just choose to forget about secondary hits because that first one was such a bigger hit than anything that followed.
The 1980s band Mr. Mister is known for their one big hit “Broken Wings,” but they had a follow-up that did fairly well, “Kyrie.” Wang Chung is known just for “Everybody Have Fun Tonight,” but they also hit the charts with “Dance Hall Days.” Actor Sam Worthington is remembered for “Avatar” and nothing else, but he actually had starring or co-starring roles in big-budget duds “Clash of the Titans” and “Terminator: Salvation ” — which might have been bad movies but they made a bunch of money.
Third-string 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens recently stepped in for the injured C.J. Beathard and shocked the NFL world with a 262-yard, three-touchdown debut in a Thursday night rout of the Raiders. Then he turned in a dud two weeks ago against the Giants.
So why does the Madman think another fantasy hit could be included in Mullens’ career catalogue? Because he gets to play the Buccaneers, that’s why, silly.
Look, for all the Giants’ struggles this season, the defense — though not a lock-down unit by any means — has not been awful, at least not against the pass. They are right in the middle of the pack in yards allowed per attempt — in a four-way tie for 14th at 7.5 They have allowed just 14 TD passes, which is one more than the league leaders.
In short, it wasn’t a great matchup, thus, Mullens falling back to earth was not an earth-shattering development. But it doesn’t mean Mullens was a one-hit wonder.
The is no better cure to such a skid than the Buccaneers’ pass defense. Tampa Bay ranks dead last in points allowed to opposing fantasy QBs — in a year when there are some historically bad pass defenses. Though the Bengals, Chiefs, Rams and Browns have allowed more yards, the Chiefs have allowed 25 pass TDs to quarterbacks, tied with the Rams for the most.
Yet the Rams are just the 11th-worst vs. fantasy QBs. Why? They have 10 interceptions. The Buccaneers have one. Yes, one. Consider: Eli Manning had a “breakout” game last week against the Bucs, and the 17.1 fantasy points he racked up were the third-fewest by QBs vs. Tampa Bay this season — the other two being by Eagles backup Nick Foles in Week 2 and Alex Smith in Week 10.
So if you are stuck with Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff on a bye week, if you smartly sat Matthew Stafford against a stiff Bears defense on Thursday, if you somehow have survived with Andy Dalton or were stung by the latest benching of Ryan Fitzpatrick, then cue up Mullens. Looking for a cheap daily option, only Nathan Peterman is cheaper on FanDuel than Mullens’ $6,000 price tag.
Mullens might not have another hit over the final month of the season, but he should deliver one Sunday.
The Decision
Post fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Rage Jarad Wilk debate whom you should start this week:
Josh Adams vs. Gus Edwards
Drew: Adams — He has gotten 10 touches in two of the past three games and clearly has taken lead in a muddy Eagles backfield, out-touching and outperforming Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement. Sunday he gets to face a Giants run defense that has allowed a rushing TD to a running back in five straight games. Edwards, despite a juicy matchup with the Raiders, still has to compete to carries with QB Lamar Jackson and RBs Alex Collins, Javorius Allen and Ty Montgomery.
Jarad: Edwards — There is not much tape on Edwards or Jackson, and it doesn’t seem like the Raiders’ defense would be the team to figure either one of them out anyway. Oakland has allowed the second-most rushing yards (1,423), the sixth-highest yards per carry (4.8) and nine rushing touchdowns. They have allowed 100 or more rushing yards in all but two games this season, including their past five games. Jackson will not run the ball 26 times again this week, but Edwards, who averaged 6.8 yards per carry last week, should get plenty of chances.
Last week: Drew 8.9 (Greg Olsen — 2-9 receiving, 1 TD), Jarad 6.7 (Austin Hooper — 4-27 receiving)
Season: Drew leads series, 7-4
Big Weeks
Lamar Jackson QB, Ravens, vs. Raiders
(FanDuel $7,400/DraftKings $5,700)
No, we don’t believe the Jackson-led offense we saw last week is sustainable, but it should thrive again this week against a sorry Raiders defense traveling across the country.
Marlon Mack RB, Colts, vs. Dolphins
(FD $7,000/DK $5,500)
Don’t be discouraged by two lackluster games heading into this week. A Miami run defense that is the fourth-most generous will stop that skid.
D.J. Moore WR, Panthers, vs. Seahawks
(FD $5,800/DK $4,600)
With Devin Funchess unlikely to play (doubtful with a back problem), it opens up some extra targets for the emerging rookie. It also puts Chris Samuel on the radar, particularly in daily contests.
Ed Dickson TE, Seahawks, at Panthers
(FD $4,700/DK $2,600)
Looking for a shot-in-the-dark tight end, look toward whoever is playing the worst team at defending them, Carolina. Dickson is a former Panther, which gives him slight nod over Nick Vannett.
Small Weaks
Aaron Jones RB, Packers, at Vikings
(FD $7,300/DK $6,000)
It isn’t just that we distrust coach Mike McCarthy, we do trust the Vikings to be solid in run defense — just two rushing TDs to running backs all season.
LeSean McCoy RB, Bills, vs. Jaguars
(FD $6,000/DK $4,200)
Reminder: It isn’t the Jags’ run defense that has led to their demise. A one-dimensional Bills offense will struggle for yards and points.
Corey Davis WR, Titans, at Texans
(FD $6,000/DK $5,200)
He has nearly as many single-digit PPR games (4) as he does double-digit (5), and just two of those for more than 12.2 fantasy points. The Texans haven’t allowed a receiving TD to a WR in four games.
Rob Gronkowski TE, Patriots, at Jets
(FD $6,900/DK $5,100)
Even if he plays (ankle, back injuries), he has been a colossal disappointment all season. Jets are the second-stingiest against opposing fantasy tight ends.
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