Fantasy Football: Where to find sleepers deep in the draft
A lot can change between now and when the NFL season kicks off. But not every fantasy league waits until just before the start of the season to draft. So if you are among those who are jumping into the fantasy season early, you can’t wait for this season’s sleepers and busts to emerge throughout the preseason. You need to know which ones are the best bets now.
Like, say, Royce Freeman. The rookie was expected to carry the load last season for the Broncos, but instead it was fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay who emerged as the best fantasy option. Lindsay had 63 more carries (193 to 130), nearly twice as many rushing yards (1,037 to 521), was much more heavily involved in the passing game (35 receptions to 14), and double the total touchdowns (10 to 5).
Yet, there is no clear-cut leader heading into this season. Lindsay was sidelined near the end of last season with a wrist injury and didn’t participate in offseason drills. He also is much smaller (5-foot-8, 190 pounds to Freeman’s 6-0, 238), which conjures durability concerns. The size factor also makes it unlikely he again dwarfs Freeman in TDs, since larger backs normally are used more often near the goal line, where most TDs occur.
Don’t get us wrong, we’re not suggesting Freeman is going to take over the backfield to start the season. But there is ample reason to believe he will continue to be heavily involved, with a better chance than most in his draft range (currently in the 90s) to inherit feature status. Consider, other RB options that deep in the draft are Adrian Peterson, Carlos Hyde, Kareem Hunt, Miles Sanders, Ronald Jones, Peyton Barber and the like.
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We will take Freeman over any of those options. We prefer his youth to Peterson, his opportunity over Hunt (who is suspended the first eight games, then has to wrestle with splitting time with budding star Nick Chubb), the lack of competition to Sanders (who is in a more crowded backfield on a team that notoriously uses multiple backs) or either of the Tampa Bay stiffs.
Sure, given the option, we would prefer Lindsay, but his average draft position is hovering in the 40s. We’ll take the 4-to-5-round discount on Freeman every day of the week.
In fact, instead of Lindsay in the 40s, we prefer to wait a round and get Bears rookie David Montgomery in the 50s. He was drafted to replace Jordan Howard, so we expect him to get the bulk of the carries. Sure, he will surrender plenty of passing work to Tarik Cohen, who is too electric to keep off the field; but being more versatile than Howard, Montgomery likely won’t have to come off the field as often on passing downs. Though we don’t expect him to come roaring out of the gate, a late-season surge is quite possible. If you miss him on draft day, keep an eye out for trade possibilities. If he does start slowly, you might be able to acquire him on the cheap.
If you’re looking for receiving help late, new Raiders WR Tyrell Williams currently has an ADP in the 130s. He is a boom-or-bust big-play type of guy, but those three or four great weeks are going to be more than you get out of most in that draft range.
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Not unlike Donte Moncrief, whose ADP is in the 170s. We don’t expect huge catch numbers or yards, so he is a better option in non-PPR leagues. TDs count in PPR, too, and we expect him to absorb a healthy share of the red-zone looks on a Steelers offense that lost two of its top recent threats in Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. We feel similarly about Devin Funchess with the Colts, but his ADP is about 40 spots higher (in the 130s).
One other WR not to dismiss is Marquise Goodwin. Consider him a post-hype candidate. Injuries derailed the 2018 season for both Goodwin and QB Jimmy Garoppolo. But with both healthy this season, Goodwin is another big-play option who developed a rapport with Garoppolo at the end of the 2017 season. He might not get as many targets as Dante Pettis or tight end George Kittle, but he is explosive enough to make those catches count. And he often goes undrafted.
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Keep your eye out for these guys at value spots in the draft. Just be ready to bail if they rise too high. Happy hunting.
