Chennai, Kolkata At 'Significant Risk' Due To Sea Level Rise By 2100, Finds New Study
Two of the biggest metro cities in India, Tamil Nadu’s capital, Chennai, and West Bengal’s capital Kolkata are at significant risk if sea level rise continues the way it is now, a new international study has said.
The study was based on simulations carried out by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the United States.
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How the study was carried out
The simulations run at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Centre considered the effects of natural sea-level fluctuations if society continued to emit high levels of greenhouse gases.
The study mapped sea level hotspots around the globe using both a computer model of global climate and a specialized statistical model.
With this, the scientists were able to determine the extent to which these natural fluctuations can amplify or reduce the impact of climate change on sea level rise along certain coastlines.
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What the study found
The study showed that internal climate variability could increase sea level rise in some locations by 20-30 per cent more than what would result from climate change alone, exponentially increasing extreme flooding events, the study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, said.
“Internal climate variability arises from complex and unpredictable interactions within and between climate-system components, rendering its impact irreducible,” it said.
The authors said it is critical for society to be aware of the potential of extreme sea level rise in order to develop effective adaptation strategies.
“The internal climate variability can greatly reinforce or suppress the sea level rise caused by climate change,” said NCAR scientist Aixue Hu, who co-authored the paper.
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“In a worst-case scenario, the combined effect of climate change and internal climate variability could result in local sea levels rising by more than 50 per cent of what is due to climate change alone, thus posing significant risks of more severe flooding to coastal megacities and threatening millions of people,” said Hu.
Other Indian cities at risk
Chennai and Kolkata, however, are not the only cities that are threatened by sea level rise.
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A study in 2022 found that Mumbai, Kochi, Vishakhapatnam, Thiruvananthapuram, and Mangalore are also at risk due to the sea level rise by 2050.
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The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had predicted a significant level of sea rise in India while a report by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) states that the north Indian Ocean will rise by approximately 300 mm (a foot).
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