Giants aren’t going to get it done

The point spread in the Bears-Giants game Sunday at MetLife Stadium was “off” all week before being set at Chicago -4 in anticipation of Chase Daniel starting again for the injured Mitchell Trubisky. That sounds reasonable. On Thanksgiving, we went with Daniel and the Bears as similar road favorites against the Lions. And though they needed a late interception return for a touchdown to seal the victory and the cover, the Bears were the correct side.

Daniel has spent a lot of time with coach Matt Nagy, first in Kansas City and now in Chicago. He knows the system well and now has had a full game to work with the Bears’ offensive weaponry. This team also doesn’t figure to have any problems with the early December conditions that often bother visitors to the Meadowlands.

Eli Manning can’t be looking forward to spending an afternoon with Khalil Mack and his buddies. And the blown 19-3 lead last week was most likely Big Blue’s last gasp.

The pick: Bears, -4.

TITANS (-8) over Jets: There doesn’t seem to be any need to rush an injured Sam Darnold back into the lineup against a Titans team that will be angry after blowout road losses to the Colts and Texans. That doesn’t mean the Jets won’t do it, though. This is a big number, but the two games prior, the Titans beat the Cowboys by 14 and Patriots by 24.

JAGUARS (+4) over Colts: It’s tempting to believe the Colts are for real and the Jaguars are totally finished, particularly with Blake Bortles benched and Leonard Fournette suspended. Yet, the game the Jaguars played against the Steelers showed the Jacksonville D is still capable of wreaking some havoc.

BUCCANEERS (+3¹/₂) over Panthers: Willing to take the points at home with the Bucs. They put up big yardage every week, and in the past game and a half, Jameis Winston has been good with four touchdowns and just one interception.

Broncos (-5) over BENGALS: Jeff Driskell is the Bengals’ new starting quarterback. Even if he has A.J. Green available, this is a team that’s 1-5 in its past six both straight up and against the spread. Denver has covered five of its past six after a terrible 2-14-1 spread swoon.

Ravens (+1) over FALCONS: Lamar Jackson is 2-0 against subpar competition, but there’s nothing to say the Falcons’ D is any better than those of the Bengals or Raiders. After losing three in a row, the Ravens are two wins into a late-season run for John Harbaugh.

Browns (+6) over TEXANS: The Browns have scored 21, 28 and 35 in the three games since firing Hue Jackson and Todd Haley. They should be able to put up enough points to stick with the Texans, who could be expected to let down a bit after winning their eighth game in a row (versus division-rival Tennessee) on Monday night.

LIONS (+10) over Rams: The linesmakers have caught up with Rams bettors. LA is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight games, and this spread in Detroit is the largest of the bunch. Rams are off a bye, but the Lions had a few extra days after their competitive Thanksgiving game.

PACKERS (-14) over Cardinals: Those who took the 14 with the Cardinals last week won’t do it again after their 45-10 destruction at the Chargers. A few weeks earlier, they covered +15¹/₂ at the Chiefs, but that felt a bit like a miracle watching it unfold. The Packers look as if they will have LT David Bakhtiari available and could get WR Randall Cobb back.

Bills (+4) over DOLPHINS: The Bills bring the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL down to Miami. And they have looked like a more lively, better team when Josh Allen is starting at quarterback. Happy to grab these points, too.

Chiefs (-15) over RAIDERS: The Chiefs have to keep winning, with the Chargers just one win behind in the AFC West. KC is 1-3 ATS after starting the season with seven covers, but with the Raiders at 2-8-1 ATS, this could be a recipe for a serious blowout.

Vikings (+5¹/₂) over PATRIOTS: Some conflicting trends apply, as the Patriots have covered 10 of their past 12 home games, while the Vikings are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on the road and 19-11-1 as underdogs in the Mike Zimmer era. Spread feels like a nice head start for a good team.

SEAHAWKS (-10) over 49ers: Seattle has put up 31, 27 and 30 points in the past three games, and the 49ers scored just nine at the Buccaneers and are 1-3 SU in their past four against the dregs of the NFL (Cardinals, Raiders, Giants, Bucs).

STEELERS (-3¹/₂) over Chargers: RB Melvin Gordon (sprained MCL) is a huge loss for the Chargers, who had to travel cross-country after a 35-point win over the Cardinals. Expecting the best effort from the Steelers after mistake-riddled games against at the Jaguars (miracle win) and Broncos (loss).

Monday

Redskins (+6¹/₂) over EAGLES: Before their comeback last week, the Eagles were outscored 67-10 by the Saints and Giants in 5¹/₂ quarters of football. Colt McCoy wasn’t so bad in the Turkey Day loss at Dallas, and the Redskins come in with some extra rest, which could help at this point in the season.

Best bets: Bills, Steelers, Chiefs.
Lock of the week: Bills (Locks 9-3 in 2018).
Last week: 10-5 overall, 3-0 Best Bets.
Thursday: Saints (L).