Finding a great pickup on the waiver wire is a satisfying victory. But such triumphs are useless unless you know when to use those players.
You might like the potential, but fear the lack of reliable production. It is possible you have other, more dependable options already on your roster. Perhaps you have not properly adjusted future projections for a player whose role and production are increasing.
Whatever the reason, you have to put them in your starting lineup to reap the rewards. This is something to consider if you have acquired D.J. Moore.
The rookie wide receiver appears to have elevated himself to the top option in the Panthers’ passing game. Over the past two weeks, he has a combined 15 catches for 248 yards and a touchdown. That ranks him sixth among all fantasy WRs in that span.
Before you chalk up Moore’s solid outings to Devin Funchess’ absence, remember Funchess played two weeks ago at Detroit and caught just two passes for 39 yards and had a collection of drops. Moore, in that game, had seven catches for 157 yards and a touchdown.
Worried about Curtis Samuel cutting into potential Moore production? Samuel has six TDs on the season, but he is averaging just three touches per game. That minimal volume isn’t going to significantly impact Moore’s production.
Plus, Samuel was dealing with a hamstring problem earlier this week. He is an explosive, gadget-type player. We don’t like when those guys have hamstring problems, which could mean Moore, instead of Samuel, gets a red-zone end-around carry this week.
Funchess is returning this week, Samuel is expected to play and you still have running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end Greg Olsen competing for targets. And you know what? We don’t care.
We are perfectly comfortable starting Moore as a WR3 or Flex spot this week and going forward. On Sunday, he gets the Buccaneers, who rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to receivers.
But wait, you say. Tampa Bay has done much better recently. You know what? You’re right. The past three weeks the Bucs have held opposing WR corps to a fewer than 30 total points combined, which is well below the league average of 36.4 in PPR formats.
Those games also came against the 49ers and Redskins — both of which rank in the bottom third in pass offense — and the Giants, who managed just 26.6 fantasy points collectively among WRs despite scoring 38 points, which is odd.
We also aren’t worried about the ho-hum outing Panthers WRs had versus the Bucs just four games ago — which included just one catch for 16 yards by Moore. That game was dominated by McCaffrey and Olsen in the air and McCaffrey on the ground. But you can bet that is exactly what Tampa Bay game-plans to prevent this time.
Even better, future weeks feature games against the Browns, Saints and Falcons. That is a schedule that screams Moore power to you.
The Decision
Each week Post fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Rage Jarad Wilk debate whom you should start:
T.J. Yeldon vs. James White
Drew: Yeldon — With Cody Kessler stepping in at QB, we don’t expect the Jaguars to open up the passing game. So that means more Yeldon and Carlos Hyde. But Hyde is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry to Yeldon’s 4.2, and Yeldon is much more productive in the passing game. Considering the Colts are likely to put up points, the Jags will need to keep up. Kessler’s history suggests he doesn’t tend to throw downfield, which makes checkdowns to his RB more likely. The return of Rex Burkhead scares us off White.
Jarad: White – It’s hard to imagine Burkhead having a huge impact in his first game back from a neck injury. Sony Michel appears to be an injury waiting to happen and is going against a defense that has allowed just 3.7 yards per carry since Week 8 and the fifth fewest fantasy points to RBs this season. The Vikings defense, though, has allowed 536 receiving yards and three TDs to opposing RBs this season. White has been targeted at least five times in every game since Week 4 while hauling in 53 passes for 442 yards and four TDs (eight, if you count his four rushing TDs) in that span. Don’t be scared of using White.
Last week: Drew 16.4 (Josh Adams – 22-84 rushing, 1 TD), Jarad 11.8 (Gus Edwards – 23-118 rushing)
Season: Drew leads series, 8-4.
Big Weeks
Jameis Winston QB, Buccaneers, vs. Panthers
(FanDuel $7,500/DraftKings $6,000)
The Panthers have allowed 12 TD passes over the past four games, including four by Ryan Fitzpatrick in a Week 9 meeting vs. the Bucs. Only twice has an opposing QB failed to throw for at least two TDs vs. Carolina.
Austin Ekeler RB, Chargers, at Steelers
(FD $5,400/DK $5,400)
No Melvin Gordon likely means more reliance on the passing game, and that benefits Ekeler more than rookie Justin Jackson. Expect the pair to split rushing duties and Ekeler to dominate passing downs.
Spencer Ware RB, Chiefs, at Raiders
(FD $5,200/DK $4,000)
Kareem Hunt was promptly cut by the Chiefs after the damning video. Enter Ware: He has performed well in this offense in the past and has a great matchup.
Quincy Enunwa WR, Jets, at Titans
(FD $5,200/DK $4,100)
Likely will see a significant dose of Malcolm Butler, who has not been great. Just twice all season have the Titans held opposing WRs to well below league average production — and those were to QBs Blake Bortles and Josh Allen.
Small Weaks
Matt Ryan QB, Falcons, vs. Ravens
(FD $8,500/DK $5,600)
We never like benching Ryan at home, but the Ravens are tough vs. opposing fantasy QBs and have allowed two or more TDs just five times, and more than two just once, and just one 300-yard passer. Baltimore’s shift to a run-heavy offense helps shorten the game.
Stefon Diggs WR, Vikings, at Patriots
(FD $7,700/DK $7,600)
He is dealing with a knee problem, and his history of producing when less than 100 percent is not great. Could be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore, which is far from optimal.
Josh Reynolds WR, Rams, at Lions
(FD $5,800/DK $4,900)
The matchup is neutral, for the most part. But Reynolds had a big game last time out vs. the Chiefs — as did virtually everyone. We don’t anticipate he will be a weekly performer, so this week we forecast a correction.
Jordan Reed TE, Redskins, at Eagles
(FD $6,400/DK $5,300)
The Eagles are the third stiffest defense against opposing fantasy tight ends — allowing just two TDs all year and none since Week 7. Have yielded double digits to TEs just three times all season.
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