Giants will roll over Mark Sanchez and the Redskins
A week ago, the lookahead line on Sunday’s Giants at Redskins game was Redskins -3. Then the Giants beat the Bears and the Redskins saw backup quarterback Colt McCoy go down in a loss to the Eagles, and now the point spread has moved nearly a touchdown in the Giants’ direction.
There are some “sharps” in Las Vegas who are positing that this was too much of an overreaction to the fact Mark Sanchez will have a full week to prepare to be the Redskins’ starting quarterback. If you’re waiting to bet this game, keep an eye on the line and see if it does move back the Redskins’ way near kickoff. That would mean the sharps are putting their money where their mouths are.
I’m not buying Sanchez. Often, a quarterback will do well in relief then fall flat in his first start, but the expectation here is he’ll do just as badly against the Giants as he did against the Eagles. It won’t be all his fault, as injuries have robbed the ’Skins of many of their best players.
The Giants have won three of their past four, and coach Pat Shurmur is placing a huge emphasis on a strong finish to the season. This looks to be a game Big Blue can win by 10-14 points.
The pick: Giants, -3¹/₂.
BILLS (-3) over Jets: About the only encouraging thing for Jets fans the past month is that they didn’t do better offensively with Sam Darnold out than they did with him in. Darnold likely will return this week, but he’ll be coming in cold (though it’s forecast to be a manageable 32 without much wind in Orchard Park). The Bills beat the Jets, 41-10, last month and now have Josh Allen back. His yardage on scrambles will be the difference in a much closer game.
Saints (-8) over BUCCANEERS: The Saints have a few extra days to prepare and rest off of their first loss since Week 1, and they have a revenge motive for that unlikely 48-40 shocker by the Buccaneers. This cover will hinge on whether the Saints can get a few turnovers from Jameis Winston as he’s going after Eli Apple.
PACKERS (-5¹/₂) over Falcons: Wouldn’t bet this game with your money. Hard to figure if this is Liberation Day for the Pack after the Mike McCarthy firing and there’s a big game in them. Or if the Falcons, at 4-8 and with Julio Jones dealing with a foot injury, will come to play in temperatures forecast for the 20s.
Colts (+4¹/₂) over TEXANS: That Colts’ 6-0 loss in Jacksonville came out of nowhere, as Andrew Luck had put up 24 or more for nine straight weeks. The Texans started their nine-game streak with an OT win against the Colts and are 6-2-1 against the spread in that time. Will they finally hit a wall the way the Saints did last week?
BROWNS (+1) over Panthers: After a 6-2 start, Carolina is 0-4 SU and ATS, losing the past three as small favorites. The Browns, who have been a good bet this season at 7-4-1 ATS, will be all out to get a fifth victory on the season after winning four games total from 2015-17.
Patriots (-7¹/₂) over DOLPHINS: Giving the points here knowing full well the Patriots have had a lot of trouble with the Fish in these Florida matchups. However, five of the Dolphins’ six SU losses have been by double digits, including a 38-7 pasting in Foxborough when Miami was 3-0.
Ravens (+6¹/₂) over CHIEFS: KC didn’t miss Kareem Hunt in Oakland, scoring 40 points in a non-cover. His absence should be felt more against the Ravens’ No. 1 defense (in both yardage and points allowed).
Bengals (+14) over CHARGERS: It’s a sandwich game for the Chargers, in between their prime-time comeback win at the Steelers and next week’s battle for the AFC West at the Chiefs.
Broncos (-4¹/₂) over 49ERS: The Broncos have won three in a row, including Ws over the Chargers and Steelers, and are on a 6-1 ATS run. The Niners are heading the other way, going 1-5 ATS in their past six.
CARDINALS (+3) over Lions: Detroit has lost five of its past six straight up, and the win was a gift from Ron Rivera (when he went for two instead of forcing OT). That game also was the only cover in the string. Cardinals have covered six of their past 10, and the hope is Josh Rosen will improve.
Eagles (+3¹/₂) over COWBOYS: All props to the Cowboys, who have beaten us in recent weeks when we had the Falcons, Redskins and Saints against them. Had the extra half point for much of the week (the hook!), but we’re still game even without it.
RAIDERS (+10¹/₂) over Steelers: Pittsburgh has had so many colossal things happen this season, it’s hard to justify laying this number. The Raiders kept coming back at the Chiefs and wouldn’t let them cover a big number last week and can do it again.
Rams (-3) over BEARS: It’ll be around 24 degrees at Soldier Field on Sunday night, but without much wind. The Rams are a warm-weather team, but Todd Gurley is a moose made for a night like this.
Monday
SEAHAWKS (-3) over Vikings: Hot-shot coordinator John DeFilippo hasn’t done better with the Vikings’ offense this season than Pat Shurmur did last year, and that’s with a better quarterback and Dalvin Cook back. Prefer to ride with the streaking Seahawks (6-1-1 ATS in last eight).
Best bets: Giants, Bills, Raiders.
Lock of the week: Giants (Locks 9-3-1 in 2018).
Last week: 5-10-1 overall, 0-2-1 Best Bets.
Thursday: Titans (W).
