Jets at Bills: How Sam Darnold is swinging the betting line
Indications are good that rookie quarterback Sam Darnold will return to the Jets lineup this Sunday on the road at Buffalo. That news caused minor adjustments to the opening line of Bills -3 1/2. Various shops globally have either lifted the vigorish on the Jets +3 1/2 to -120, or dropped the line to Buffalo -3 with -120 vigorish on the Bills. We’ll monitor the markets for updates through the week.
Darnold has been getting more market respect than his backup, Josh McCown. This past Sunday’s point spread at Tennessee rose from Jets +8 to +10 when it was confirmed prior to kickoff that Darnold would be out. New York lost stats badly, but did cover that spread thanks to a defensive touchdown.
Both the Jets (3-9) and Bills (4-8) had regular-season win totals of six this past summer in Las Vegas. Sunday’s winner will have a chance to push or beat that projection — though, the Jets would have to run the table to cash tickets for backers.
— The Nets return to the floor Wednesday when they host Oklahoma City. Brooklyn has dropped five of its past six against the spread after losing, 99-97, Monday night to Cleveland as a six-point home favorite. The Nets shot just 10-of-40 on 3-pointers in a slow-paced affair. Pace factor has been below 98 in seven of Brooklyn’s last nine games.
Red-hot Oklahoma City beat Detroit on Monday, 110-83, as a favorite of 2 1/2 points. That’s a 24 1/2-point cover, and three straight cashes for the Thunder, who are now 13-4 against the spread their last 17 games. Note that OKC is 10-2 straight up in the 12 games injury-riddled Russell Westbrook has played this season.
Westbrook has earned his spotlight. But, don’t overlook the fact OKC has the best defense in the NBA this season based on points allowed per possession. Holding Detroit to just 83 points on 105 possessions solidified an edge over other defensive stalwarts Boston, Indiana and Denver.
— VSiN mentioned Tuesday that head-coach firings often come after poor point-spread runs. Such ATS slumps are a red flag that teams aren’t playing to expectations. The Bulls fired Fred Hoiberg Monday on the heels of a 3-9 performance against the spread. Sure, everyone knew the Bulls would be bad. But Chicago had recently been playing so far below those low expectations that management decided to make a move. (Chicago will be OKC’s next stop on its road trip.)
— Set your DVR to catch Gonzaga’s next TV appearance. The No. 1 college basketball team in the country hosts state-rival Washington on Wednesday (ESPN2, 11 p.m.).
Gonzaga goes on the list of elite teams that keep covering point spreads even though everyone knows they’re great. The New Orleans Saints (9-3 ATS) are still on that list in 2018 despite losing at Dallas last time out. New England (8-4 ATS) has been on that list throughout the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era. Gonzaga is 8-0 straight up, 7-1 ATS so far this season. Those records include a very impressive upset of Duke out in Maui, and a huge comeback against Creighton this past Saturday … winning the second half on the road, 62-44.
